Why does the model favor LAD?

NYY key absences: Tyler Lyons (RP, Out, 5.0pt impact); Aaron Judge (RF, Out, 5.0pt impact); Carlos Rodón (SP, Out, 5.0pt impact) — total ~20.0pt swing. Los Angeles Dodgers is 62-36 (0.633). Dodgers' balanced 31-19 home, 31-17 road splits indicate consistent execution regardless of venue; Yankees' home underperformance is the structural tell.

What could go wrong with the LAD pick?

Aaron Judge (5.0pt impact) remains out, but if Tyler Lyons or Carlos Rodón return to availability, Yankees' bullpen leverage and rotation depth shift materially.

Is the Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees prediction a guarantee?

No. Predictions are probabilistic and are not guarantees. Odds can move at any time. Bet responsibly. 21+ only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Free Model Pick · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees

Q: Who will win Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees today?

The Supreme Brain model favors LAD on the moneyline for Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees at a 53.7% probability. The free public moneyline pick for Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees is LAD. This is the strongest free signal for this game right now; the rest of the board is available with a free sign-up.

Q: What is today's free pick for Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees?

The free public pick is LAD (Moneyline) at -116. Dodgers took Yankees two nights ago, 2-1. Dodgers' Depth Advantage Over Depleted Yankees

Who will win Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees today?

Updated Jul 19, 2026 · 13:38 UTC First pitch 23:20 UTC Status Powered By Supreme Brain · editorially reviewed

By BookieSlip Models · methodology & sources

— Free model pick

LAD -116

Dodgers took Yankees two nights ago, 2-1. Dodgers' Depth Advantage Over Depleted Yankees

Model win probability

0.0%

Market-implied (-116) 53.7%

LAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

Away

NYY

New York Yankees

Home

Pick parameters

MarketMoneyline

ConfidenceLEAN

Projected edge+0.0pp

49.7%last 90d · n=500-10.6uROI 90dL2streak

01 The simple version

Dodgers took Yankees two nights ago, 2-1. Dodgers' Depth Advantage Over Depleted Yankees

Moneyline · LEAN · edge clamped to MLB

This is a public free pick, not a guarantee. Read the risk section below before acting on it. Odds can move at any time.

↗

Why the model favors it

NYY key absences: Tyler Lyons (RP, Out, 5.0pt impact); Aaron Judge (RF, Out, 5.0pt impact); Carlos Rodón (SP, Out, 5.0pt impact) — total ~20.0pt swing.
Los Angeles Dodgers is 62-36 (0.633).
Dodgers' balanced 31-19 home, 31-17 road splits indicate consistent execution regardless of venue; Yankees' home underperformance is the structural tell.

◎

What the model saw

Probable starters were not yet confirmed when this page generated.
Final lineups were not confirmed at generation time, so the model is working with the projected starters.

What could go wrong

Aaron Judge (5.0pt impact) remains out, but if Tyler Lyons or Carlos Rodón return to availability, Yankees' bullpen leverage and rotation depth shift materially.

01b How this pick was made

The Supreme Brain is a 56-module prediction engine running on five years of SportsDataIO history. Every stat below traces back to a verified source row, and the thesis passes 11 pre-publish safety gates before it ships.

02 Where the edge comes from

Model vs. market

The model’s win probability against the probability implied by the current price.

Model probability 53.7%

Market-implied (-116) 53.7%

Model’s projected edge

+0.0pp

Edge is clamped to the MLB ceiling. Probabilistic, not a guarantee.

03 Evidence the model leans on

Key signals

The public signals the model relied on most — surfaced honestly, gaps included.

Key Signals

PickLearningCase.pre_game_thesis_json.key_signals

These are the public signals the model relied on most when ranking this pick.

Strong

Starting Pitchers

Game.probable_*_pitcher (null)

Probable starters were not yet confirmed at generation time.

Missing

Lineups

Game.lineup_confirmed_at (null)

Final lineups had not been confirmed when this page was generated. A late scratch or rest day can flip the model.

Watch

Weather

Game.weather_*

No weather signal was attached to this game at generation time.

Missing

Simulator

Game.simulation_unavailable_reason

No simulator output is available for this game right now. Reason: simulator inputs missing: probable_home_pitcher, probable_away_pitcher, park_factor. SEO page will surface this honestly instead of faking a probability. The thesis leans on the inline model probability instead.

Missing

Model vs Market

PickHistory.model_prob vs market_prob

The model and the betting market mostly agree on this outcome, so there is not a huge hidden edge here.

Watch

04 Risk summary

What could go wrong

⚠

A late scratch can flip this pick

These are the things that could break the pick:

PickLearningCase.risk_signals + PickHistory.the_risk

05 Locked — unlock with a free sign-up

The rest of today’s board

🔒

MLB · SEA

SF @ SEA · moneyline at -178

🔒

MLB · WSH

WSH @ ATH · moneyline at -138

🔒

MLB · BOS

TB @ BOS · moneyline at -124

🔒

MLB · ARI

STL @ ARI · moneyline at -119

Supreme Brain track record on this product · click to expand

Performance windows

last 30d122-118-1 (50.8% · -8.1% ROI · -19.5u, n=241)

last 90d245-248-7 (49.7% · -10.6% ROI · -53.2u, n=500)

all time245-248-7 (49.7% · -10.6% ROI · -53.2u, n=500)

Numbers update after every settled slate. Past performance does not predict future results — bet responsibly.