Why does the model favor UNDER 9.5?

Lou Trivino III, Adolis García, and Tanner Banks combine for ~20.0pt impact absent—a bullpen and lineup tax Mets cannot absorb. Philadelphia averages 4.7 runs per game over last 10, outscoring opponents by -0.6 per game despite 6-4 record. Citizens Bank Park's 111 HR factor and open roof amplify Phillies' home advantage in a low-run environment.

What could go wrong with the UNDER 9.5 pick?

Even verified edges fade against variance — stake responsibly.

Is the New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction a guarantee?

No. Predictions are probabilistic and are not guarantees. Odds can move at any time. Bet responsibly. 21+ only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Free Model Pick · MLB

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Q: Who will win New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies today?

The Supreme Brain model favors UNDER 9.5 on the under for New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies at a 50.0% probability. The free public under pick for New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies is UNDER 9.5. This is the strongest free signal for this game right now; the rest of the board is available with a free sign-up.

Q: What is today's free pick for New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies?

The free public pick is UNDER 9.5 (Under) at -110. Phillies took Mets in their last meeting, 5-4. Mets Injuries Stack Against Philadelphia

Who will win New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies today?

Updated Jul 16, 2026 · 13:38 UTC First pitch 23:10 UTC Status Powered By Supreme Brain · editorially reviewed

By BookieSlip Models · methodology & sources

— Free model pick

UNDER 9.5 -110

Phillies took Mets in their last meeting, 5-4. Mets Injuries Stack Against Philadelphia

Model win probability

0.0%

Market-implied (-110) 52.4%

NYM

New York Mets

Away

PHI

Philadelphia Phillies

Home

Pick parameters

MarketUnder

ConfidenceFALLBACK

Projected edge+0.0pp

49.9%last 90d · n=500-10.3uROI 90d

01 The simple version

Phillies took Mets in their last meeting, 5-4. Mets Injuries Stack Against Philadelphia

Under · FALLBACK · edge clamped to MLB

This is a public free pick, not a guarantee. Read the risk section below before acting on it. Odds can move at any time.

↗

Why the model favors it

Lou Trivino III, Adolis García, and Tanner Banks combine for ~20.0pt impact absent—a bullpen and lineup tax Mets cannot absorb.
Philadelphia averages 4.7 runs per game over last 10, outscoring opponents by -0.6 per game despite 6-4 record.
Citizens Bank Park's 111 HR factor and open roof amplify Phillies' home advantage in a low-run environment.

◎

What the model saw

Probable starters: Christian Scott (away) vs Aaron Nola (home).
Final lineups were not confirmed at generation time, so the model is working with the projected starters.

What could go wrong

Even verified edges fade against variance — stake responsibly.

01b How this pick was made

The Supreme Brain is a 56-module prediction engine running on five years of SportsDataIO history. Every stat below traces back to a verified source row, and the thesis passes 11 pre-publish safety gates before it ships.

02 Where the edge comes from

Model vs. market

The model’s win probability against the probability implied by the current price.

Model probability 50.0%

Market-implied (-110) 52.4%

Model’s projected edge

+0.0pp

Edge is clamped to the MLB ceiling. Probabilistic, not a guarantee.

03 Evidence the model leans on

Key signals

The public signals the model relied on most — surfaced honestly, gaps included.

Key Signals

PickLearningCase.pre_game_thesis_json.key_signals

These are the public signals the model relied on most when ranking this pick.

Strong

Starting Pitchers

Game.probable_*_pitcher

Probable starters are set: Christian Scott for the visitors and Aaron Nola for the home side.

Helpful

Lineups

Game.lineup_confirmed_at (null)

Final lineups had not been confirmed when this page was generated. A late scratch or rest day can flip the model.

Watch

Weather

Game.weather_*

No weather signal was attached to this game at generation time.

Missing

Simulator

Game.simulation_unavailable_reason

No simulator output is available for this game right now. Reason: simulator inputs missing: park_factor. SEO page will surface this honestly instead of faking a probability. The thesis leans on the inline model probability instead.

Missing

04 Risk summary

What could go wrong

⚠

A late scratch can flip this pick

These are the things that could break the pick:

PickLearningCase.risk_signals + PickHistory.the_risk

05 Locked — unlock with a free sign-up

The rest of today’s board

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MLB · PHI

NYM @ PHI · moneyline at -128

🔒

MLB · NYM

NYM @ PHI · moneyline at +109

🔒

Coming soon

Locked premium teaser placeholder until the full board ships.

🔒

Coming soon

Locked premium teaser placeholder until the full board ships.

Supreme Brain track record on this product · click to expand

Performance windows

last 30d173-164-3 (51.3% · -8.1% ROI · -27.6u, n=340)

last 90d246-247-7 (49.9% · -10.3% ROI · -51.4u, n=500)

all time246-247-7 (49.9% · -10.3% ROI · -51.4u, n=500)

Numbers update after every settled slate. Past performance does not predict future results — bet responsibly.