Free Model Pick · MLB

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians

Who will win New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians today?

Updated Jun 9, 2026 · 12:24 UTC First pitch TBD Status Powered By Supreme Brain · editorially reviewed
— Free model pick
NYY -134

The model favors NYY (moneyline) for New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, currently priced at -134.

Model win probability
0.0%
Market-implied (-134) 57.3%
New York Yankees logoNYY
New York Yankees
Away
Cleveland Guardians logoCLE
Cleveland Guardians
Home
Pick parameters
MarketMoneyline
ConfidenceLEAN
Projected edge+0.0pp
01 The simple version

The model favors NYY (moneyline) for New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, currently priced at -134.

Moneyline · LEAN · edge clamped to MLB

This is a public free pick, not a guarantee. Read the risk section below before acting on it. Odds can move at any time.

Why the model favors it

  • New York Yankees is 39-26 (0.600).
  • The model rates this pick at a 57.3% probability.

What the model saw

!

What could go wrong

  • CLE key absences: Gabriel Arias (SS, Out, 5.0pt impact); Emmanuel Clase (RP, Out, 5.0pt impact); Erik Sabrowski.
  • Cleveland Guardians is 37-31 (0.544).
  • Yankees face their own ~20.0pt injury swing with Aaron Judge, Max Fried, and Tyler Lyons sidelined.
  • Lineups were not confirmed when this page generated, so a late scratch could change the picture.
01b How this pick was made

The Supreme Brain is a 56-module prediction engine running on five years of SportsDataIO history. Every stat below traces back to a verified source row, and the thesis passes 11 pre-publish safety gates before it ships.

02 Where the edge comes from

Model vs. market

The model’s win probability against the probability implied by the current price.

Model probability 57.3%
Market-implied (-134) 57.3%
Model’s projected edge
+0.0pp

Edge is clamped to the MLB ceiling. Probabilistic, not a guarantee.

03 Evidence the model leans on

Key signals

The public signals the model relied on most — surfaced honestly, gaps included.

Key Signals
PickLearningCase.pre_game_thesis_json.key_signals
These are the public signals the model relied on most when ranking this pick.
Strong
Simulator
GameSimulation (none)
No simulator output was attached to this game at generation time. The thesis is leaning on the inline model probability instead.
Missing
Model vs Market
PickHistory.model_prob vs market_prob
The model and the betting market mostly agree on this outcome, so there is not a huge hidden edge here.
Watch
04 Risk summary

What could go wrong

A late scratch can flip this pick

These are the things that could break the pick:

PickLearningCase.risk_signals + PickHistory.the_risk
05 Locked — unlock with a free sign-up

The rest of today’s board

🔒

MLB · UNDER 8.5

SEA @ BAL · total at -110

🔒

MLB · SF

WSH @ SF · moneyline at -115

🔒

MLB · TEX

TEX @ KC · moneyline at -123

🔒

MLB · NYM

STL @ NYM · moneyline at -128

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