BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-07-29
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
BAL logo
BAL
BAL
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
DET logo
DET
DET
The Pick
DET
Moneyline · -184
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+5.0pp
Model Win
68.0%
Fair Odds
-213
Kelly Stake
0.1u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 68.0%
Market Implied 64.8%
+5.0pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing DET at -184 (64.8% implied), we think they win 68.0% of the time.
Our Model
68.0%
win probability · fair odds -213
The Book
64.8%
implied · current odds -184

The Matchup

BAL logo BAL Stat DET DET logo
— Odds -184
32.0% Model Win % 68.0%
— Edge +5.0pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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