BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-07-25
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
CIN logo
CIN
CIN
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
STL logo
STL
STL
The Pick
Under 8.0
Total · -108
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+4.9pp
Model Win
54.5%
Fair Odds
-120
Kelly Stake
0.1u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 54.5%
Market Implied 51.9%
+4.9pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing Under 8.0 at -108 (51.9% implied), we think they win 54.5% of the time.
Our Model
54.5%
win probability · fair odds -120
The Book
51.9%
implied · current odds -108

The Matchup

CIN logo CIN Stat STL STL logo
— Odds -108
45.5% Model Win % 54.5%
— Edge +4.9pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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