BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-08-14
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
KC logo
KC
KC
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
LAA logo
LAA
LAA
The Pick
KC
Moneyline · -104
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+-0.3pp
Model Win
50.7%
Fair Odds
-103
Kelly Stake
1.0u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 50.7%
Market Implied 51.0%
+-0.3pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing KC at -104 (51.0% implied), we think they win 50.7% of the time.
Our Model
50.7%
win probability · fair odds -103
The Book
51.0%
implied · current odds -104

The Matchup

KC logo KC Stat LAA LAA logo
— Odds -104
49.3% Model Win % 50.7%
— Edge +-0.3pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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