BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-07-28
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
KC logo
KC
KC
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
MIN logo
MIN
MIN
The Pick
MIN
Moneyline · -177
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+5.0pp
Model Win
67.1%
Fair Odds
-204
Kelly Stake
0.1u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 67.1%
Market Implied 63.9%
+5.0pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing MIN at -177 (63.9% implied), we think they win 67.1% of the time.
Our Model
67.1%
win probability · fair odds -204
The Book
63.9%
implied · current odds -177

The Matchup

KC logo KC Stat MIN MIN logo
Odds -177
32.9% Model Win % 67.1%
Edge +5.0pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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