BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-08-08
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
LAD logo
LAD
LAD
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
ARI logo
ARI
ARI
The Pick
LAD
Moneyline · -179
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+4.9pp
Model Win
67.3%
Fair Odds
-206
Kelly Stake
0.1u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 67.3%
Market Implied 64.2%
+4.9pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing LAD at -179 (64.2% implied), we think they win 67.3% of the time.
Our Model
67.3%
win probability · fair odds -206
The Book
64.2%
implied · current odds -179

The Matchup

LAD logo LAD Stat ARI ARI logo
— Odds -179
32.7% Model Win % 67.3%
— Edge +4.9pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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