BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-08-02
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
MIA logo
MIA
MIA
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
NYM logo
NYM
NYM
The Pick
NYM
Moneyline · +104
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+5.0pp
Model Win
51.4%
Fair Odds
-106
Kelly Stake
0.0u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 51.4%
Market Implied 49.0%
+5.0pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing NYM at +104 (49.0% implied), we think they win 51.4% of the time.
Our Model
51.4%
win probability · fair odds -106
The Book
49.0%
implied · current odds +104

The Matchup

MIA logo MIA Stat NYM NYM logo
— Odds +104
48.6% Model Win % 51.4%
— Edge +5.0pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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