BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-07-30
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
NYY logo
NYY
NYY
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
CHW logo
CHW
CHW
The Pick
CHW +1.5
Spread · -197
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+5.0pp
Model Win
69.6%
Fair Odds
-229
Kelly Stake
0.1u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 69.6%
Market Implied 66.3%
+5.0pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing CHW +1.5 at -197 (66.3% implied), we think they win 69.6% of the time.
Our Model
69.6%
win probability · fair odds -229
The Book
66.3%
implied · current odds -197

The Matchup

NYY logo NYY Stat CHW CHW logo
— Odds -197
30.4% Model Win % 69.6%
— Edge +5.0pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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