Will PHI beat NYY tonight?

Our Supreme Brain assigns PHI a 68.9% win probability against NYY in this MLB matchup at -191.

What is the expected value on PHI -191?

Based on the 68.9% model probability vs the 65.6% market-implied probability, this bet carries a +4.9pp edge.

How does BookieSlip generate MLB picks?

Our Supreme Brain runs 56 intelligence modules against five years of SportsDataIO data. Every statistic is sourced and attributed; no number can appear without provenance.

PHI vs NYY

NYY

Tonight 7:00 PM ET

PHI

The Pick

PHI

Moneyline · -191

Confidence

STRONG

Edge

+4.9pp

Model Win

68.9%

Fair Odds

-221

Kelly Stake

0.1u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 68.9%

Market Implied 65.6%

+4.9pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing PHI at -191 (65.6% implied), we think they win 68.9% of the time.

NYY	Stat	PHI
—	Odds	-191
31.1%	Model Win %	68.9%
—	Edge	+4.9pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

✓

Supreme Brain assigns PHI a 68.9% win probability — that is +4.9pp above the market's 65.6% implied probability.

SupremeBrain
✓

6% — priced fair, home chalk.

SupremeBrain
⚠

NYY can flip a game on 1 HR.

SupremeBrain

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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The Edge, Visualized

The Matchup

Anatomy of the Pick

Why we like it

How this loses