BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-07-27
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
PHI logo
PHI
PHI
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
MIA logo
MIA
MIA
The Pick
PHI
Moneyline · -186
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+4.9pp
Model Win
68.2%
Fair Odds
-215
Kelly Stake
0.1u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 68.2%
Market Implied 65.0%
+4.9pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing PHI at -186 (65.0% implied), we think they win 68.2% of the time.
Our Model
68.2%
win probability · fair odds -215
The Book
65.0%
implied · current odds -186

The Matchup

PHI logo PHI Stat MIA MIA logo
— Odds -186
31.8% Model Win % 68.2%
— Edge +4.9pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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