BookieSlip
Updated MLB · 2026-09-11
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
SEA logo
SEA
SEA
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
ATH logo
ATH
ATH
The Pick
ATH
Moneyline · +142
Confidence
STRONG
Edge
+1.0pp
Model Win
41.4%
Fair Odds
+142
Kelly Stake
0.0u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 41.4%
Market Implied 41.3%
+1.0pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing ATH at +142 (41.3% implied), we think they win 41.4% of the time.
Our Model
41.4%
win probability · fair odds +142
The Book
41.3%
implied · current odds +142

The Matchup

SEA logo SEA Stat ATH ATH logo
— Odds +142
58.6% Model Win % 41.4%
— Edge +1.0pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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