BookieSlip
Updated NBA · 2026-10-06
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
NO logo
NO
NO
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
OKC logo
OKC
OKC
The Pick
NO +1.5
Moneyline · -115
Confidence
LEAN
Edge
+8.0pp
Model Win
57.8%
Fair Odds
-137
Kelly Stake
0.1u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 57.8%
Market Implied 53.5%
+8.0pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing NO +1.5 at -115 (53.5% implied), we think they win 57.8% of the time.
Our Model
57.8%
win probability · fair odds -137
The Book
53.5%
implied · current odds -115

The Matchup

NO logo NO Stat OKC OKC logo
— Odds -115
42.2% Model Win % 57.8%
— Edge +8.0pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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