BookieSlip
Updated NHL · 2026-10-05
By · Updated · Source-attributed reasoning · Forward CLV measured
PHI_TB logo
PHI
PHI_TB
at
Tonight 7:00 PM ET
PHI logo
PHI
PHI
The Pick
PHI
Moneyline · +180
Confidence
LEAN
Edge
+-4.1pp
Model Win
34.3%
Fair Odds
+192
Kelly Stake
0.0u

The Edge, Visualized

Our model's win probability vs. the market's implied probability. The gap is the edge.

Our Model 34.3%
Market Implied 35.7%
+-4.1pp edge in our favor. The market is pricing PHI at +180 (35.7% implied), we think they win 34.3% of the time.
Our Model
34.3%
win probability · fair odds +192
The Book
35.7%
implied · current odds +180

The Matchup

PHI_TB logo PHI Stat PHI PHI logo
— Odds +180
65.7% Model Win % 34.3%
— Edge +-4.1pp

Anatomy of the Pick

Every factor that moved the model. Every number sourced — no hallucinations.

TL;DR

Why we like it

How this loses

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